Thursday U.S. economic data released in general less than expected, but the market is less affected, because the European Central Bank co-five dollars to provide liquidity to banks Message substantially boost market sentiment, non-US currencies in the euro sharply lower, led by Yeung. From the figure, the United States refers to the pre-test a low trend line, is expected to be supported in this.
in the last two weeks of debt crisis ‘concerns, the market seems to have fallen into fatigue. For debt crisis nothing more than bad news is not good bond auction results, rating agencies downgraded, European leaders continue to argue, the market has this feeling indifferent. European data released prosaic days, five European Central Bank to provide liquidity joint news of several major boost in the market, the phrase is to be the Wall Street adage: advantage of this opportunity is good.
jointly announced today the Federal Reserve ECB, BOJ, the Bank of England and European Central Bank banking Rui provide three-year loan support, the message further ease concerns about debt in Europe, pick up in risk appetite in the case of the euro may be relatively strong.
New York early published data also show that the U.S. 910 on the week’s seasonally adjusted number of jobless claims 42.8 million, 41.4 million people expected; follow-up for unemployment benefits 372.6 million, 371.0 million people are expected ; United States 9 New York Fed manufacturing index fell to -8.82 from -7.72 8, for the fourth consecutive decline; U.S. 9 Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index rose to -30.7 from -17.5 eight of economists is expected to -12.0.
U.S. Labor Department data released Thursday showed the U.S. rate of 8 seasonally adjusted CPI rose 0.4%, the former value increased by 0.5%, expected to rise 0.2%. 8 Not seasonally adjusted CPI rose 3.8% rate is expected to rise 3.6%.
generally weak U.S. economic data, especially the United States last week, jobless claims increased dramatically, creating more than two the highest level since the U.S. job market outlook is still not optimistic, stimulating risk aversion.
but then suddenly said in a statement the ECB has decided that with the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Bank of Japan and Rui three taken jointly provide the central bank dollar liquidity operations for a period of about three, the European Central Bank’s operations will be fixed interest rates, the full distribution-based approach, time was set at 1012 days, 119 days and 127 days.
affected by the dollar index fell sharply, news, the dollar index fell sharply to Sunday from 76.77 low 77.08 line line. Then the United States refers to a slight rebound, but the New York afternoon to suppress the United States refers to the stock market or to expand, closing at 77.30 line.
outlook concerns the Federal Reserve meeting
European debt market is still dense fog, the current market has been bearish on the euro was numb, gradually the focus of the market outlook to next week’s Federal Reserve meeting. Friday market is not an important risk events, market sentiment may continue to ease, and with the Fed rate decision approaches, perhaps the Fed’s monetary policy will be the next focus, if the Federal Reserve announced further expansion of QE3 or monetary policy, then the dollar’s rebound may stop there, will be re-converted to non-US currencies strong.
Although there are many investors expect the Fed will launch QE3, but in our view, this is not a high probability event, because an important purpose QE3 lowering market interest rates, and now 10 U.S. bond yields frequently fell below 2%, the Fed has made no further quantitative easing, you can enjoy low interest rate environment. Meanwhile, the U.S. core inflation continues to rise, approaching the upper limit of 2% of the Federal Reserve, also limits the room for the Fed to further put in money.
analysts said the Fed might take in the bond market, asymmetric operations, which sell short-term bonds and buy long-term bonds, so that can avoid a lot of money invested, and can further depress the long end of the interest rate, especially 10 or more bond interest rates. Obama last week launched a $ 447 billion job stimulus plan, once passed by Congress, the Federal Reserve will further reduce the possibility of introduction of QE3.
Monday UBS currency strategist Mansoor Uddin said, because Japan and the Swiss authorities to curb the currency appreciation, and the ECB and the Bank of Japan is expected to further the implementation of monetary easing policy to stimulate the demand for the dollar, the dollar has become the safe-haven currency, although U.S. government bonds had been downgraded credit rating.
Mansour pointed out that if the Federal Reserve recently abandoned a new round of quantitative easing, the dollar will remain bullish, and the British pound against the euro is expected to rise further, as investors concerned about the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan’s easing. The key risk remains that the Fed could launch the third round of the quantitative easing policy.
from a technical point of view, the United States experienced a rapid rise last week, refers to the trend line break after this week there is a callback request. See Technical analysis: partisan stimulus plan may kill the dollar highs.
