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unexpected Bank of Japan to ease monetary policy, the Japanese economy is worrying and the recent rise in oil prices and other factors, Wednesday (222 days) the dollar/yen extended recent sharp appreciation of the situation, the dollar touched 80.39, the 7 has been the highest level.
But analysts pointed out that despite the recent yen continued substantial weakness, but the yen decline in the short term may become relaxed, the long term, yen appreciation trend is still possible to restore.
214 days
the Bank of Japan (BOJ) decided to expand the scale of asset purchases to ease monetary policy and inflation targeting. Bank of Japan unanimously decided to maintain its benchmark interest rate is generally expected in the 0-0.1% range, in line with prior. Central bank and asset purchases and lending programs expanded to 10 trillion yen to 65 trillion yen.
In addition, the central bank also announced that 1 percent of consumer price inflation as a policy goal. The central bank decided to take the medium-and long-term goal of price stability in order to clearly against the determination of deflation.
Japanese Ministry of Finance (Ministry ofFinance) published data show that Japan recorded a trade deficit of 1.475 trillion yen, the market had forecast a deficit of 1.4681 trillion yen.
Japan is a country heavily dependent on crude oil imports, the recent high oil prices is also the yen unfavorable factors. Since the natural disasters go, its 54 nuclear reactors only five are still in operation, resulting in increased demand for energy imports.
Royal Bank of Canada capital markets (RBC CapitalMarkets), senior currency strategist David Watt, said, the yen fell to attract the attention of the majority of market participants, he believed that its decline by the macroeconomic factors drive.
Watt said: “The situation in the United States suddenly looks much better than Japan, we have seen a reversal of two U.S. dollars/yen carry the last few years, the continued narrowing of spreads in the past few , but has recently started to widen again, for the dollar. “two U.S. dollars/yen spreads indicate that, compared to Japan, the United States the economic data is improving recently.
institutions FOR: yen declines expected slowdown
Nomura (Nomura,) said Wednesday that the yen may continue to weaken, but the recent rapid decline in the trend will not last, from the global tightening of policy still time, and most of the yen leverage long positions have been unwound.
Nomura currency strategist Jens Nordvig pointed out that the Japanese capital flows also shows that the weakening yen trend will be more relaxed.
According to this view, Nomura in the first quarter to the end of the dollar/yen exchange rate forecast from 75.00 on to 79.00, this end of the forecast is still 81.00.
Wells Fargo Bank (Wells Fargo) head of FX strategy NickBennenbroek claimed that he expected the yen decline will slow, and that the excessive focus on Japan’s trade deficit is not appropriate, because of Japan still has a substantial current account surplus.
Bennenbroek added: “Japan’s current account surplus continued to show that the country turned to the negative impact of the trade deficit against the yen may be lower than initially thought that the extent of.” He said
Japanese capital flows in recent more favorable yen, to a certain extent explains why, despite the overall economic trend in Japan is gradually deteriorated, but the yen continues to maintain toughness.
Sumitomo Shoji (SumitomoTurst and Banking) senior economist. Ayako Sera in:
Goldman Sachs Group (“Unless the end of deflation in Japan, or the yen’s appreciation trend can not easily change.” GoldmanSachs Group,) said Tuesday that the carry trade again dominated the dollar/yen.
Goldman Sachs Group, said that the need to focus on the Open Market Committee (FOMC) will continue after the second round of quantitative easing (QE) measures the implementation of QE3. The Federal Reserve (FED) and the Bank of Japan decided to maintain long-term low interest rates unchanged, but the interest rate differential between the U.S. and Japan, and limited, it can not long-term boost to the dollar/yen.
Goldman Sachs, said the Japanese authorities since the 1031 Japanese unilateral intervention in the markets, but also to take in the 11 stealth intervention tactics to suppress the yen exchange rate. Recent concerns about Japan’s intervention in the short term impact of dollar/yen, and Japan today a huge trade account deficit will also lead to the Japanese government to implement a more accommodative monetary policy to stimulate the economy.
In addition, some analysts pointed out that as the next Japanese fiscal draws to a close, the market is expected to soon see a reversal of yen selling activities, usually in the meantime, the Japanese companies to repatriate funds, will lead to demand for the yen.
Japanese Finance Ministry official pointed out recently that the yen still the appreciation of the risks, Japan will continue to closely monitor the foreign exchange market trend, and to respond at the appropriate time.
Beijing time 09:02, the dollar/yen, 80.31/33
