by Japan’s central bank unexpectedly expanded asset purchase size and Japan’s trade account deficit exceeded one trillion suppressed, the yen continued to fall since the beginning of 2. Below the 80 mark the first time in a half yen against the dollar on Wednesday (222 days), mainly due to persistent deflation in Japan’s economy, the market expects the Bank of Japan will continue to expand the scale of quantitative easing, to suppress the yen exchange rate continued to drop.
214 daysthe Bank of Japan (BOJ) decided to take further monetary easing measures, as the inter-bank benchmark interest rate, the uncollateralized overnight call rate was maintained at 0-0.1% of the ultra-loose level, for the purchase of government bonds and other assets the size of the fund to expand to 10 trillion yen.
In addition, the Japanese Ministry of Finance announced an end of data shows that Japan 2011 trade deficit of 2.49 trillion yen, which is the first time in Japan since 1980 has been have the degree of trade deficit.
At the same time, the U.S. economy appears good signs of recovery, while the euro area the debt crisis stage solution to stimulate the market risk appetite return to a certain extent, weaken the yen hedging demand. In addition, low interest rate environment, the yen has again been interest arbitrage traders favor.
for yen outlook movements, internationally renowned investment bank to expand the great debate. The investment bank of Goldman Sachs, Nomura and Deutsche Bank does not believe that the yen rally has ended, is expected to soon yen will resume the uptrend.
● Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
Goldman Sachs Group (Goldman Sachs) said Tuesday that the carry trade again dominated the dollar/yen. Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan are long-term to maintain low interest rates unchanged, and the interest rate differential between the U.S. and Japan is limited, it can not long-term boost the dollar/yen.
Goldman Sachs warned investors to be concerned about the Open Market Committee (FOMC) will continue after the second round of quantitative easing (QE) measures to implement the third round of quantitative easing (QE3).
Goldman Sachs said that the Japanese authorities since the 1031 day unilateral intervention in the markets, but also to take in the 11 stealth intervention tactics to suppress the yen exchange rate. Recent concerns about Japan’s intervention in the short term impact of dollar/yen, and Japan today a huge trade account deficit will also lead to the Japanese government to implement a more accommodative monetary policy to stimulate the economy.
● Barclays Capital
Barclays Capital (Barclays Capital) chief interest rate strategist Gavin Stacey said that the economic performance so that investors expected the United States will start its tightening cycle in advance, some The strong forces driving the yen against the dollar reversal of risk sentiment seems to yen bulls forces had been weakened. “
Stacey added,” Japan will continue to implement quantitative easing measures the Bank of Japan amazing the QE announcement the yen continued to fall recently. “
the French the Industrial Bank
French bank Societe Generale (Societe Generale), said, “Recently, the yen decline seems unlikely to continue, but the yen is still possible to further weakness down, although less likely to show the trend of plummeting.”
● Wells Fargo
Wells Fargo Bank (Wells Fargo) Head of a currency strategist Nick Bennenbroek said, “With the market situation is a little ease financial markets to reduce volatility, the markets have become more willing to sell yen and buy other high-yielding currencies, the dollar/yen, there is a big relationship with the Bank of Japan easing. “
Nomura Securities
Nomura (Nomura,) in the Group of Ten (G10) global head of FX strategy Jens Nordvig said earlier that the new round of global risk aversion and the Federal Reserve to further stimulus measures in the short term will push the yen to return to the level of 76-77 dollars . “We think the dollar/yen rise space is limited.
he said, “We think this second quarter of USD/JPY will exceed 80, but will not get there soon, we believe that within a certain time, the investor against the dollar/yen rose potential for profit taking. “
Nordvig guard against the yen crosses, other potential risks, including market on the ECB (ECB) in 229 Friday’s second round of long-term refinancing operations (LTRO) potential disappointment.
UBS
UBS AG (UBS) said, suddenly decided to expand the monetary easing scale, decided to cut the yen exchange rate estimates based on the Bank of Japan. Regardless of the reasons for the Bank of Japan is the sudden change of policy stance that Japan’s potential asset purchase program involved are relatively large scale.
UBS announced that it cut the dollar/yen an exchange rate forecast to 80,3 months the exchange rate forecast to 85. The agency previously are 1 and 3 of the expected 77.
UBS expects large-scale asset purchase program will help the Bank of Japan to achieve the inflation goal.
of foreign exchange research, global head of Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank (Deutsche Bank) Bilal, Hafeez said that the Japanese central bank’s recent accident to relax the impact of policy on the yen will gradually fade, the yen will back to the strong level of recent test 75.00.
Hafeez said in an interview, “Many investors want to see the continuing weakness of the yen, but I think this will not happen. The Bank of Japan last week’s move in to some extent like recent foreign exchange intervention, unless the Japanese authorities to continue to intervene in currency markets, and to adopt more lenient measures, the dollar/yen will continue to decline. “
Hafeez also pointed out that Japan’s trade situation changes would weaken the yen The argument is too exaggerated. Japan 2012 trade account is expected to restore the surplus, previously subject to the 3.11 earthquake and tsunami, Japan over 30 years the first time in the trade deficit.
● DBS
DBS Group (DBS) in the Hong Kong market, senior vice president Wang Liang to enjoy on Tuesday said in 2012 the foreign exchange market outlook is expected the yen against the dollar have the opportunity to test 80 level, while the next is more likely to touch 85.
Wang Liang enjoy weaker yen mainly three factors: 1, Japan’s trade into a deficit, now a trade deficit to record experience a new high; 2, Japan The national debt level is high; serious deflation in Japan.
● Capital Economics
Capital Economics (Capital Economics) said on Tuesday raised the 2012 end of the dollar/yen forecast to 70, the original estimate of 65. The increase is mainly based on deteriorating economic fundamentals in Japan and the Japanese central bank to ease monetary policy.
the agency said, “is expected to 2012 the end of the dollar/yen fell to 70 yen in 2013 no further appreciation.”
